October 2004 Newsletter
Issue Ten, Volume Five

AN ADULT DOSE OF POLITICAL TRUTH

By Mike Gasior

It seems as though the older I have gotten, the more that politics has become a sort of spectator sport for me to be watched on television and debated among friends and family. This current presidential campaign in the U.S. is unfortunately among the most stupid and difficult to watch in many, many years. If you boil the whole thing down, you basically have an incumbent president with very strong opinions, views and plans, which are upsetting to many in the electorate. On the other side, you have a candidate running against the incumbent whose only true platform is being against everything the incumbent is for. The three debates were ludicrous and were not only no fun to watch, but by the third one I was ready to vomit. What I would have given to hear even ONE new or bold idea out of either of them, or to even hear one of them say "you sir are a FOOL and a LIAR!" It's just been a constant drumbeat of the same old rhetoric and boring anecdotes with nothing new to put my arms around. The absolute highlight of the campaign so far was watching Zell Miller, Democratic Senator from Georgia challenging Chris Matthews on CNBC to a duel on live TV after Senator Miller's speech at the Republican National Convention. Maybe that's because I've been tempted a few times to pull an Elvis and pump a few bullets into my television set watching Hardball on CNBC and listening to Mr. Matthews speaking simply because he loves listening to himself talk more than his own guests. But I, once again, digress.

MY FAVORITE ELECTION INDICATOR SO FAR

We have been inundated over the past few months with a myriad of indicators that might predict the presidential election, ranging from the candidates height to whether or not the Redskins win their final home game before the election.

I recently heard my favorite indicator so far, which is based on whose image is selling better as a Halloween mask. The statistic I heard was that George W. Bush's image was outselling John Kerry's by a little over a 60% to 40% ratio. This would obviously be a very good omen for President Bush's re-election.

As some people have thought more about it though, it has started to become odd that there would be such a lopsidedness of the Halloween mask ratio given the closeness of the two candidates in the polls. Then it crept into the heads of many that there might be a significant group of people who are buying Frankenstein masks and THINKING they were actually buying a John Kerry mask. I am trying to do further research into this theory and will keep you posted of my results. This kind of stuff can definitely make me pee my pants laughing though.

THE INESCAPABLE POLITICAL TRUTH

>From the title of this newsletter you can sense I've got something important on my mind this month, and it has to do with subjects not being discussed by ANYONE running for President or Congress. While the subject is critical to this country's future, politicians have been trained by voters to not mention these things or they will be quickly voted out of office. The United States is barreling toward a financial crisis that has every chance of rivaling the 1930's Great Depression and every American in their hearts knows the story I will lay out for you is true. What is becoming more and more sad to me is this could have been addressed many years ago and the severity of the upcoming train wreck could have been drastically reduced. Now the situation has reached a critical mass and is unavoidable, yet the politicians aren't even suggesting you should be fastening your seat belts before the impact of this runaway train against the immovable future. Do I have your attention now? Good. So please remember who reminded you to fasten your own personal seatbelt and might have potentially saved your economic life.

Also, please be aware that although I am obviously outlining the situation and circumstances for the United States, there is the substantially similar situation in place for most of Europe, Japan and even China. I referenced in a newsletter earlier this year how grossly under funded the Chinese Social Security program was and how Japan is aging even faster than most western countries, so there are many governments out there facing difficult choices in the future. Not just the U.S. Many of the European governments have already begun addressing the aging of their populations through higher taxes and managed healthcare. The size of the U.S. problem and looming retirement of the largest segment of people in the country has set up the following series of unavoidable events.

Beginning sometime around 2008, and worsening further and further for the next decade, Americans will see the following:

--Massive increases in Federal, State and local taxes.
--Substantial cuts made to their Social Security and Medicare.
--Substantial cuts made to their government pensions and retirement health benefits.
--A bitter and volatile generational war pitting the "Greatest Generation" of World War II paired with the "Baby Boomers" against "Generations X and Y".

For a change, these are not any sort of predications being made by me. These are absolute facts of life and backed up by an army of people who know the details of the situation far better than I do. Consider this quote by David Walker, who is Comptroller General of the United States and is employed by the government as its chief accountant:

"I am desperately trying to get people to understand the significance of this for our country, our children and our grandchildren. How this is resolved could affect not only our economic security but also our national security. We're heading to a future where we'll have to double federal taxes or cut federal spending by 50%."

Every single year the Social Security and Medicare trustees tell the Congress the awful truth, which is that they have absolutely no way to pay for their programs even if the economy were to reach levels of prosperity never seen before.

The Congressional Budget Office updates the Congress constantly about the level of the liabilities being bourn by the government, and the politicians listen to the reports and mention nothing of them on the campaign trail.

So here are some of the numbers that the trustees and the CBO share with Congress that you might have never heard before. In trillions of dollars, here is the list of liabilities carried by the United States Government and local governments:

--$4.2 trillion of Federal borrowing
--$3.9 trillion of Federal and military pensions
--$30.0 trillion in Medicare benefits
--$12.7 trillion in Social Security benefits
--$0.2 trillion in misc. Federal obligations
--$2.0 trillion in State and local debt

The total of all these liabilities is 53 trillion dollars. I apologize in advance for pointing out what may be obvious to some, but perhaps not crystal clear to others. I want people to remember that the fact that these are being referred to as "liabilities" is because they are in effect debts owed by the government. These liabilities have not been funded in any way, shape or form and will need to be repaid by taxpayers in the future and that future is now only a few short years away.

USA Today ran a terrific headline that I thought captured the heart of the matter in a very succinct way. In a very large, red font it showed these two numbers:

--$85,454 is the average household's personal debt
--$473,456 is the average household's share of this $53 trillion of liabilities

One other elementary thing I want to also remind you of is that the $53 trillion is how much the liability is right NOW!! Not how much these liabilities are going to cost over their lifetime. If the government were required to fund these liabilities the way a corporation would be required to, the government would need to put away RIGHT NOW the $53 trillion so that there will be the money available to pay for these programs in the future.

If you don't keep track of these numbers on a regular basis, the U.S. government collected a grand total of $3 trillion in taxes in 2003. This fact causes you to wonder where in the heck the government is ever going to put together the money to back up these programs. Well, clearly, they are not going to be able to do that. So what are they going to do instead?

Here is where things become somewhat imprecise since all the choices that will be open to politicians are horrible. If the new crew of elected official who will take office for the year 2005 wanted to step up and actually fix the situation immediately, here are two solutions that would render the problem fixed:

--They would have to immediately double all federal taxes beginning immediately in the 2005 tax year and make these increases permanent. All state and local taxes would also need to be increased by 20% immediately in the 2005 tax year and made permanent also.

--Or they could simply reduce all Social Security, Medicare and government pension payments immediately and permanently by 50%. The average Social Security check would drop from the current $1,500 monthly to $750 immediately. A government military pension monthly payment would be instantly cut from the current $1,782 to about $891. And Medicare spending would be reduced from an average of $7,500 per person to $3,750 for senior citizens. Also, the Medicare prescription drug benefit plan that passed last year will need to be cancelled.

Obviously the politicians could also blend the two solutions in whichever way resolves the pending implosion of the situation.

If your gut reaction to reading what I have written so far is that you cannot imagine politicians doing ANYTHING to fix this crisis, then the day of reckoning only becomes darker and more gloomy.

And before you go blaming this situation on George Bush or any of the current crop of politicians, don't bother. This problem has been in making for the past 60 years and no one has stepped up in any earnest way during that timeframe to offer solutions. Of course, the current office holders haven't done anything to make progress toward answers, but I resist making any John Kerry type of blaming which would likely lay this whole mess at the feet of Bush. Given that Kerry has spent almost 20 years in the U.S. Senate compared to Bush's three and half years, and has voted for nothing but benefit increases for all these programs he would be well advised to keep his mouth shut regarding this issue.

So how did we end up in this horrible jam? Well, simply, the World War II generation and Baby Boomers have granted themselves all sorts of wonderful retirement benefits and have contributed very little toward financing them; basically leaving the bill for their children and grandchildren. I liken it to someone inviting you out for a wonderful meal, stuffing themselves like gluttonous pigs and then sticking you with the check. One can only figure there might end up being some lingering resentment and anger as the government pins this tab on Generations X and Y who I would suspect might be reluctant to pay for all this nonsense, and who could blame them? This is where the generational warfare might begin sometime no later than 2015 I figure.

I wish there was some "silver lining" to this whole fiasco, but I cannot imagine one and neither can you. All outcomes are gut wrenching and ugly and all we can be certain of is that it will take a crisis mentality for the politicians to get off their rump and do something about, and that crisis is not probable but guaranteed.

It was not my wish to bum anyone out, or set a negative tone for your day. Anyone reading this already knew that the system was broken, and the younger the person, the more likely they weren't counting on ever getting their Social Security. If Americans want to ensure a comfortable old age, they will need to abandon their consumerism and embrace dedicated savings for their future as well as watching their own levels of debt. Readers of this hideous newsletter count on me being honest with them and that is what I am attempting to do when I don't hear a single politician sounding an alarm. I won't be the government who pees on your leg and then tries to convince you it's raining. Nope. This time the government is just plain peeing on your leg. Your choice is deciding what you want to do about it and remember to get out there and vote.

MY TRIBUTE TO REAL "ROAD WARRIORS"

People like myself tend to get referred to as road warriors for the sorts of statistics we compile. As best I can figure my numbers, the last 15 years have included about 1,277,000 miles in the air, 765 flights, almost 3,000 nights in hotels and nearly 250,000 miles of driving. All impressive figures, but a lot of those miles were in first class seats and sleeping in Four Seasons Hotels.

A couple of nights ago I was trying to return from Atlanta to Connecticut and my flight was delayed a couple of hours and the gate switched three times. Finally a bunch of us were preparing to board and commiserating about the state of air travel, when one of the guys mentioned that he was already 30 hours into trying to get home and was hoping the last leg wouldn't be the problem one. The mentioning of 30 hours required me to ask where the heck he had departed from, and his answer was "the middle east". Asked for more specifics, he told me that he had left Afghanistan over a day ago and that it had taken four previous flights to get him to Atlanta. Although I knew better, I couldn't help myself and asked him "Vacation?" He at least laughed and told me that he was a National Guardsman who had only been home for 5 days total in the past two years and was going to be getting at least two weeks home before finding out whether he was going to be redeployed back to Afghanistan.

We boarded the plane and I saw him sit down a few rows away, but the lights were soon dimmed and we flew toward Hartford. Right before the landing the flight attendants made their usual announcements regarding baggage and whatnot. Then another flight attendant came on the intercom to make everyone on the plane aware of the special passenger who they had moved up to First Class so that he could get more quickly into the arms of his family who he hadn't seen for over a year. She also mentioned that one might expect that he might want to sleep late the next morning, having not laid in his own bed in such a long time, but that wasn't going to be the case. Because he had spent the last 33 hours trying so hard to get home he was actually going to be able to see his 8 and 6 year old children march in their school's Halloween parade the next morning.

The applause was thunderous and I began to fight the tears that began welling in my eyes at that moment, and again now as I write this.

I lamented in this newsletter earlier this year having spent 2 evenings sleeping on the floor of Chicago's O'Hare airport so far in 2004. Well, for this brave young man the floor of O'Hare might well have seemed like a Four Seasons Hotel compared to some of his evenings in Afghanistan.

Once and again I can feel somewhat sorry for myself for all the nights away and all the time spent in airports and on airplanes. At moments like the one on that plane from Atlanta those sorts of feelings are impossible to imagine. I fall asleep every night safe and sound thanks to those brave men and women who have spent so many nights away from their beds and families.

I hope that young man enjoyed seeing his children march in that parade. I can only imagine the smiles on the faces of his kids thanks to him being there.

ON A MUCH LIGHTER NOTE

The previously mentioned trip from Atlanta I picked up a DVD that I had read reviews of and had seen portions of in other places, and want to offer you a review of.

"The Rolling Stones Rock and Roll Circus" is a fabulous trip back to a day when rock and roll was still forming and growing, and you get to see some of the greatest artists who ever lived perform on this disk.

The actual show aired on British television in December of 1968 and the show portion of the DVD runs about 63 minutes. There is plenty of extra footage included, and although I paid what is probably bust out retail of $17.99, if you love music this is worth every dime. They totally re-mastered the video from the original 16mm film stock and have even mixed the audio into 5.1 surround sound. Although the overall effect is still somewhat nostalgic, today's viewer is no doubt enjoying a better overall experience than the 1968 viewer.

The opening act is Jethro Tull, and I'm somewhat disappointed to report that the group appears to be lip-syncing. Jethro Tull was the first band I ever brought my younger brother to, at the New Haven Coliseum and I have always had a soft spot in my heart for all their music. Tell me the last major act that featured a flute player as a front man since.

I will have to admit that I recently saw the footage of The Who playing in The Rock & Roll Circus on the recent re-release of "The Kids are all Right". Many people watching back in 1968 thought that The Who had showed up their hosts the Rolling Stones, and as a big fan of The Who, I might foster that argument. The Who definitely seemed to NOT be lip-syncing, and clearly showed why they have been one of the best live acts of the previous 40 years.

I can remember as a pubescent young man that Marianne Faithfull was a lovely young woman, which was somewhat of a consensus opinion among other young men of that generation. Her voice and performance was as lovely as her appearance on the show, and you will enjoy her singing her song "Something Better".

The Rolling Stones themselves sing the final six songs of the show and are honestly as terrific as I'd hoped they'd be. Having seen every Stone's tour since 1977, I am a die-hard fan and look forward to any new, video release of material I haven't seen previously. You will be surprised to see an almost teenage looking Mick Jagger and Keith Richards singing a few classic Stone's tunes.

The most surprising part of the show for me was the performance of "The Dirty Mac" band. I had read the DVD packaging before I bought the disk, and had seen "The Dirty Mac" listed as one of the acts in the show. I'll be first to admit that I don't have every act from the 1960's committed to personal memory so I figured I would wait to see what they looked like to see if that jogged my recollection. Well, waiting to see what they looked like certainly did the trick, since "The Dirty Mac" band is made up of the following people:

--John Lennon (of the Beatles) on rhythm guitar and lead vocals.
--Eric Clapton (recently departed from Cream) on lead guitar.
--Keith Richards (of the Rolling Stones) on bass guitar.
--Mitch Mitchell (of the Jimi Hendrix Experience) on drums.

They played one song on their own (Yer Blues) and then backed up another song for Lennon's new girlfriend Yoko Ono (where she screeched into the microphone for about 5 minutes, but was better than I'm making it sound) and the level of musicianship was breathtaking. Without sounding like a complete old fuddy duddy, moments like these really make you wonder when the next generation of musicians and artists of this quality will surface. For an ad hoc crew just getting together to make some noise, what a sweet noise indeed.

So you have my wholehearted recommendation for the acquisition of this DVD. Even if you are not a fan of 1960's rock and roll, you might find yourself hungry for another taste after watching this.

YOUR MONTHLY BRAIN TEASER

There seems to be quite a few people who are appreciating the "real life" nature of the past few brain teasers, so I thought I would keep up the trend for at least one more month. I figure people will be on a fairly equal footing with this one since we are all inundated by advertising every single day, so here goes.

Here is this month's brainteaser:

"What company spent the most on advertising during the first half of 2004?"

http://www.afs-seminars.com/brainteaser_Oct2004.html

And the answer to LAST month's brainteaser is:

"The most popular magazine in the world, measured by paid circulation is AARP The Magazine with 22,720,073 subscribers. The second most popular is Reader's Digest with 10,228,531. Sports Illustrated and Playboy are in 16th and 17th place with about 3.3 million subscribers, and one of my favorite magazines, The Economist is in 188th place with 460,894 regular readers."

http://www.afs-seminars.com

Copyright 2004, Michael Gasior. All Rights Reserved.

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